# Odds

Meridian Predict operates like an auction: market makers compete to take the other side of your prediction, and where they settle sets your odds. Your odds are the price the market puts on your prediction, and they determine your payout.

## Reading the Odds

Every prediction has an implied probability: how likely the market thinks it is. A prediction priced at 25% is a longer shot than one at 60%, and it pays more if it wins.

That probability comes from how much each side stakes. It is your share of the combined pool:

<MathBlock tex={String.raw`\text{implied probability} = \frac{\text{your stake}}{\text{your stake} + \text{counterparty stake}}`} />

If you stake 25 USDe and the counterparty stakes 75, your side is priced at 25% (your share of the 100 USDe pool).

The same odds can be shown in a few formats; use whichever you read most easily:

| Format      | Example | Reading                   |
| ----------- | ------: | ------------------------- |
| Probability |     25% | What the market implies   |
| Decimal     |    4.00 | Total return per 1 staked |
| Fractional  |     3/1 | Profit per 1 staked       |

## Your Payout

If your prediction wins, you're paid your stake times the multiplier (the decimal odds): your stake back, plus your winnings from the other side. Your odds are locked in the moment you place the prediction.

At 25% odds (a 4.00 multiplier), a 25 USDe stake pays 100 USDe: your 25 back plus 75 in profit. If it loses, you get nothing.

A [combo](/trading/predictions/predictions-and-picks) pays more because the odds stack: combine a 50% pick with a 40% pick and the combo might be priced near 20% (0.50 × 0.40), so the same 25 USDe stake would pay about 125 USDe if both win.
